000			02426nam a22003137a 4500
003			IIITD
005			20260212180201.0
008			260204b |||||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a9781399604055
040			_aIIITD
082			_a519.542 _bCHI-E
100			_aChivers, Tom
245			_aEverything is predictable : _bhow Bayes' remarkable theorem explains the world _cby Tom Chivers
260			_aWeidenfeld & Nicolson, _bLondon : _c©2024
300			_axxvii, 303 p. : _bill. ; _c21 cm.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 273-291) and index.
505			_tIntroduction: A theory of not quite everything
505			_tChapter One: From "The Book of Common Prayer" to the Full Monty Carlo
505			_tChapter Two: Bayes in science
505			_tChapter Three: Bayesian decision theory
505			_tChapter Four: Bayes in the world
505			_tChapter Five: The Bayesian brain
505			_tConclusion: Bayesian life
520			_aThomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear. Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
650			_aBayesian statistical decision theory
650			_aBayesian statistical decision theory -- Popular works
650			_aStatistical decision
942			_cBK _2ddc
999			_c209569 _d209569