Escape from model land : how mathematical models can lead us astray and what we can do about it

included index.

1. Locating model land 2. Thinking inside the box 3. Models as metaphors 4. The cat that looks most like a dog 5. Fiction prediction, and conviction 6. The accountability gap 7. Masters of the universe 8. The atmosphere is complicated 9. Totally under control 10. Escaping from model land.

"From Covid-19 to climate change, we depend on scientific models to help us understand the world around us every day. They're upheld as a sacrosanct tool in many areas of science and public policy, with governments making crucial decisions based on their predictions. Yet models aren't a perfect mirror of reality, and relying on them too heavily can hurt us. In Escape from Model Land, statistician Erica Thompson illuminates the hidden dangers of model-based science - and charts a way out. Although models are undeniably one of the most powerful tools in our scientific arsenal, Thompson shows us how they can hinder our progress if we misuse them. She demonstrates how models reflect the biases of their creators and are subject to interpretation, and pushes us to examine how our assumptions become embedded in models and are displayed back to us. Drawing on real-life examples ranging from the 2008 financial crash and Covid-19 to art and literature, she reveals why our models are so often wrong. Models are metaphors for the real world, she argues; when we forget that, we can become trapped in a land of unreality. Ultimately, she shows us why it's so important to escape from 'model land.' Learning to contextualize models and understand their limits is necessary for us all to make better decisions about our biggest global challenges in the future. Provocative and timely, Escape from Model Land is an essential book for helping us make sense of our collective reality"-- A statistician examines why mathematical models are often wrong, how they reflect the biases, perspectives, and expectations of their creators, and how relying too heavily on them can cause adverse effects.
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