000			03394cam a2200349 i 4500
001			18605242
003			IIITD
005			20221103020002.0
008			150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2015007310
020			_a9781847947147
040			_aDLC _beng _erda _cDLC _dDLC
042			_apcc
050	0	0	_aHB3730 _b.T47 2015
082	0	0	_a303.49 _223 _bTET-S
084			_aBUS086000 _aSOC037000 _aPSY008000 _2bisacsh
100	1		_aTetlock, Philip E.
245	1	0	_aSuperforecasting : _bthe art and science of prediction _cPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.
260			_aLondon, _bRandom House Books : _c©2015
300			_a340 p. : _bill ; _c25 cm
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index.
520			_a"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
650		7	_aBUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting. _2bisacsh
650		7	_aSOCIAL SCIENCE / Future Studies. _2bisacsh
650		7	_aPSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology. _2bisacsh
650		0	_aEconomic forecasting.
650		0	_aForecasting.
700	1		_aGardner, Dan
906			_a7 _bcbc _corignew _d1 _eecip _f20 _gy-gencatlg
942			_2ddc _cBK _03
999			_c13777 _d13777